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Will Macron win the French Game of Thrones?

A French Game of Thrones

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Sunday night, in a dimly lit bureau, President Emmanuel Macron contemplates the results of the European Parliamentary 2024 Elections. The right-wing National Assembly led by Marine Le Pen has surged massively in the polls, almost by surprise and is now the biggest party in France with a 32% share of the vote. Europeans are starting to question the legitimacy of the governments that are working to replace them. He has only minutes before he goes live to make his public announcement. Meanwhile, at the Parisian bureau of his party, members are conscious of what such a result means – it is a humiliating defeat – one that may call for urgent general elections, but most don’t believe that he will use his powers to dissolve the current parliament, it would be suicide. Then, Macron makes his announcement: the National Assembly shall be dissolved and snap elections will be held in three weeks. For a couple of seconds, the silence in the office is deafening, then a few lonely claps take over the otherwise stunned public inside. The president of France has just launched the country into the most important elections to take place since at least 30 years. The consequences of his decision are wreaking havoc in every party bureau, every street and every corner in France.
Here, I will attempt to introduce the readers to the key players in this French Game of Thrones, and what is happening inside the political landscape as of today. First, I will briefly introduce the parties, then present the most important events during the 72 hours preceding the announcement in chronological order to better lay down the drama of the events.

Meet the Right

The Republicans (LR)

Some of the readers may remember the French Republican party simply as Nicolas Sarkozy’s old party. It is a centre-right party traditionally allied with more moderate forces, and has held a ‘cordon sanitaire’ against the right-wing Front Nationale (today National Rally) since the presidency of François Mitterrand in the 80s. Led today by Éric Ciotti, who narrowly won the presidency of the party with 25.5% votes against the 25% of his rival Valérie Pécresse. Since they are the centre-right, they have two options: either ally with the Macronists or with Le Pen’s National Rally. The latter is much more controversial since it would break the 40-year-old ‘cordon sanitaire’.

Valérie Pecresse and Éric Ciotti, party rivals

National Rally (RN)

Formerly Jean-Marie Le Pen’s Front Nationale, the National Rally is much more moderate in compared to what it was in the days of Jean-Marie, as he eventually fell victim in 2015 to betrayal at the hands of his own daughter Marine Le Pen. She now de-facto runs the party and has never stopped in her efforts to ‘de-radicalize’ the RN and its image. In fact, she actively alienates patriotic European parties that support plans for remigration such as the German AfD, which has been excluded from the European ID group at the behest of Marine Le Pen after AfD top politician Maximilian Krah’s statement that not all SS members were necessarily criminals. This itself caused another internal drama in Germany leading to Krah’s exclusion from representing the AfD in the European Parliament by the party leadership seeking to reconcile, ultimately in vain, with Marine and the ID group.

Marine Le Pen with her champion, Jordan Bardella

Marine has a younger politician, Jordan Bardella, serving as the president of the party and eventually, if Macron were to resign, as candidate for President. Now that they have established themselves at the most popular party in France with 32% of the votes, they must secure an alliance with the minoritarian right-wing parties to ensure an absolute majority in parliament. As they are the bigger party, they get to choose the terms. However, Marine does not look forward to working with people further to the right, including:

Reconquête (R!)

The newest party in the club, certainly more ‘radical’ than the National Rally, is led by Eric Zemmour, an Algerian-French Jew and ex-political journalist with a desire to push the French overton window, using shocking political terms such as the Great Replacement, and Islamo- Leftism. Him and Marine Le Pen share a bitter rivalry, because Zemmour accuses Marine of being a de-radicalizer and a con artist that plays into the hands of liberals by gatekeeping the right-wing‘patriotic’ camp from more ‘ethnically conscious’ politics.

But Reconquête is not a one-man party. The most shining star of the party is arguably Marion Marechal Le Pen, who happens to be Marine’s niece, and grand-daughter of Jean-Marie. She is a younger woman that is much closer in politics to her grandfather than her aunt. As one can tell, she was not happy with her grandfather’s betrayal and defected to Zemmour’s side in search of a platform that would mirror Jean-Marie’s vision much closer than the National Rally. In fact, the bitterness between is such that Jean-Marie himself considered endorsing Zemmour over Marine in the 2022 elections.

Rising star Marion Marechal Le Pen and Éric Zemmour

The Stakes:

That fateful Sunday night Macron dissolved the parliament set a course of events almost unprecedented in three decades for French politics. An unexpected snap election on a short notice while the centre collapses unleashed a race for total control over the country’s politics. For the first time in decades, one of the two major European countries might have a right-of-the-centre party obtaining absolute majority in parliament, which might give it the time it needs to slow down the invasion of non-Europeans and adding more sand in the clock for European nationalists to keep pushing its message and build political infrastructure.

Some readers in other countries might not see the importance of this and think it is all useless anyways, but France is arguably the country in the most imminent peril of reaching the point of no return in demographics, and the political climate has been increasingly marked by recurring violence in the streets, of non-European gangs targeting whites; of communist and anarchist gangs openly attacking right-wing people & parties and calling for their deaths; of nationalists being forced to band together and fight back against the savage hordes that aim for their physical destruction.

Projected results of the upcoming snap elections as of June 13th. Left bloc expected to grow and Macronist (in orange) to shrink.

The stakes are higher than usual, as in less than 24 hoursALL parties left of the Macronists reached a coalition agreement with each other. This coalition seeks to revive the ‘Popular Front’, of which France has had its own under the Jewish socialist Leon Blum, but in reality, it increasingly looks more of a revival of the Spanish Popular Front that drove the country to a civil war, comprising not just political parties from the centre left social democrats to the furthest left communists, but also officially of Antifa and far-left militias that aim to transform the country into a rootless state through anarcho-tyranny.

Because of this, I beg of the reader to take the situation with the seriousness it deserves: The left have crossed no less than three Rubicons in less than 24 hours, it has formed alliances with otherwise politically untouchable groups, it has vowed to riot every night until the elections (a promise so far kept) and has endorsed death threats towards their enemies, which is everyone to the right of them and they intend to use all of their non-European electorate to carry out such threats. Against this there is no choice but to unite the right. After all, the Spanish Civil War was not won through the fragmentation of the right, but through the temporary sacrifice of ideals for the greater good of the nation against the threat of communism. Us versus them. Life or death.

Timeline

June 10th, Day 1: National Rally Reaches Out

  • Macron dispels rumours of his resignation early on. He intends to stay in until the elections take place and probably thereafter as well. He will deliver 3 public announcements per week until then. Nobody knows his plan. His own party did not expect this move. Some speculate hopes to win support from the centre parties.
  • Jordan Bardella (RN) is announced as potential candidate for Prime Minister
  • Paris stock exchange plummets
  • The Popular Front is formed in a hurry. National Secretary of the Communist Party is booed at the exit of the Green Party headquarters by a mob. Leftist parties vow to defeat the right and take to the streets. A French flag is torn off of a window by leftist mob, subsequently vandalised and celebrated. Pubs owned by Catholic groups or known to be frequented by right-wingers are looted and destroyed and confrontations with the police take place across the cities. The mob chants “RN to the pyre, Jordan Bardella inside the fire.”
  • The RN reaches out to the parties. Jordan Bardella wants to form a united national bloc. Several French right-wing influencers indicate the necessity of a united front.
  • First night of riots. A church is vandalised, sprayed “death to the fafs”.1

June 11th, Day 2: The Right Responds

  • 9 am: Jordan Bardella (RN) announces live on TV that executives of the Republican Party (LR) will themselves in the lists of RN for the elections; Marion Marechal (R!) tweets “We always carried the idea of a union. It is no longer time to just say but to do”
  • 9:30 am: Marion Marechal announces during TV interview “I am not returning to the National Rally. I am in a coalition logic. I consider that the Republicans, Dupont-Aignan, Reconquête and the National Rally have singularities but also have things to share. There is the opportunity to save ourselves 3 additional years of Emmanuel Macron, therefore 1.5 million additional arrivals of migrants by 2027”
  • 10 am: Éric Ciotti of the Republicans (LR) takes the public by surprise: He reveals he is considering an agreement with the National Rally, he is due to speak on TV later
  • 11 am: Macron postpones his public announcement for tomorrow.
  • 12 pm: Marion Marechal announces live and in front of her party about her willingness toaccept a right-wing coalition. Applauses from everyone inside the party. Some argue thatZemmour was not very convinced.
  • 1 pm: Marion Marechal is the crucial bridge between Zemmour and her aunt. She is sent tomeet Jordan Bardella to negotiate constituencies and candidates, allegedly in hopes of securinga deal that Zemmour is willing to accept.
  • 1 pm: Ciotti announces live on TV “We need an alliance with the National Rally, with MarineLe Pen. We need an alliance of the national and patriotic right-wing” he considers the danger of the extreme left to be of immediate concern, saying “The left carry extremely dangerous ideas, the Macronist bloc has led the country into more insecurity, then you have a right-wing bloc”; he is convinced that the majority of his electorate approves of a coalition and is determined to “bring an alternative to stop the decline”
  • 1:30 pm: Analysts assert that if RN wins an absolute majority in parliament, Macron will be forced to leave office.
  • 2 pm: Ciotti exits the TV station building, he is met by party colleague Sandrine Rousseau who shouts “shame on you, Mr. Ciotti!” and storms off. Ciotti now has to face the rage of his party. He has broken the cordon sanitaire.
  • 3 pm: The fragmenting of the Republicans begin. Several activists and deputies side with Ciotti’s decision to tear down the Mitterrandian wall. It is the top of the party and Parisian Republicans, Ciotti’s closest colleagues who are mostly in disagreement.
  • 4 pm: Ciotti is harassed at the gates of the party bureau, by a group of disgruntled Republicans; The president of the youth wing of the Republicans sides with Ciotti, stating that “times have changed, and the National Rally has changed”.
  • 4:30 pm: A fire is reported at the palace of Versailles. An ill omen of what is to come. Marion Marechal has been quiet for hours. Some suspect that she is being courted by her aunt and Jordan Bardella to defect Zemmour and re-join the National Rally and take her supporters along, leaving Zemmour with a fraction of his party.
  • 5 pm: Marion Marechal releases a scandalous public statement. Negotiations with Bardella have reportedly fallen apart. Marine Le Pen wants to exclude any alliance with Eric Zemmour. She also adds that she will not be joining the National Rally, contrary to rumours. Looks like Marine Le Pen wants to exclude Zemmour at all costs, even if it means a defeat by Macronist/leftist forces in the election.
  • 6 pm: Nicolas Sarkozy (LR) former president of France seemingly approves of Ciotti’s decision. In 2023, he stated that the National Rally should not be excluded from the Republican circle, and the right has to unite itself in order to win. When asked about the cordon sanitaire, “but what about the extreme right?” he responded “Stop it with the extreme right. What is the extreme right?”. The mood around the centre is that everyone that is right of the socialists is the extreme right, and this new Popular Front would make even Leon Blum turn on his grave, you have social democracy allying itself with the extreme left, the communist party, and the extreme left of the extreme left: the NPA.
  • 6:30 pm: Bardella speaks with the press about the meeting with Marion Marechal: “Unlike Éric Zemmour, Marion Maréchal demonstrated, throughout the campaign, a constructive approach and attitude”.
  • 7 pm: Eric Zemmour breaks his silence on TV. He states that he wants a right united bloc, that he has been favourable to the idea for 25 years. “I told Marion Marechal to go there and negotiate with the National Rally, due to her family ties, I have been practically harassing her by text to come to an agreement no matter the cost”; “The left always knew how to unite itself at the biggest moments of history against the right”
  • 7:15 pm: Zemmour states in front of the cameras: “I will not present myself to the upcoming legislative elections”. He says that he does not want to split the vote, that he wants Marine Le Pen to reconsider an alliance, going so far as to demand nothing in return: “I am not asking for anything, neither constituency nor ministry, I am not demanding anything”.
  • 7:30 pm: The day ends along with Zemmour’s interview on TV. The door is left open for the National Rally to make peace with Zemmour. Suspicions are raised as to the nature of the interview between Marion Marechal and Jordan Bardella. Why would Bardella agree to meet Marion if Marine wanted no form of alliance with Zemmour? Was he unaware? Or was Marion being offered a deal?
  • 10 pm: Second night of riots. Riot brigade is deployed in Paris.

June 12th, Day 3: The Deluge

  • 9 am: Aurelien Pradié of the Republicans (LR) states on live television “If necessary, we will take [Ciotti] out of the office of General de Gaulle’s heirs (…) We will take the necessary decisions, he is no longer our leader”; Rachida Dati (LR) adds: “The historic line of the Republicans is to bring the French together. The line that Éric Ciotti has taken is to divide the French”. The schism of the Republican party starts.
  • 11 am: Mutinies within the Republicans. Those close to Ciotti abandoned him and blocked him from his e-mail address. They also convened a meeting to remove him from office, but there is a statutory problem: he has just published a counter-press release: a public statement contesting the behaviour the party’s political bureau and reminding the public that he will remain the president of the Republicans.
  • 12 pm: Eric Zemmour declares through his X account that his party authorities are ready to resume discussions with the National Rally; Macron makes public announcement about the alliances that have been created since Sunday: “This moment is that of clarification […] since Sunday evening, the masks have fallen and the battle of values has come to light”
  • 12:15 pm: Press releases information that Marine Le Pen allegedly met with Eric Ciotti yesterday at 19:30 pm. The entente between the two seems to be excellent.
  • 12:30 pm: Eric Ciotti locks himself inside the Parisian headquarters of the Republicans with a gun (not really, I just added a gun for plot value). Some party employees wait outside. He is not letting anyone inside.
  • 2:30 pm: Agnes Evren, senator and president of the Paris federation of Republicans (LR), arrives at the office of the party and wishes to exclude the president of the party despite the illegality of the approach. She states: “We must put Eric Ciotti out of harm’s way!”
  • 2:45 pm: Right-wing university student associations stress the need for a coalition between all right-wing parties.
  • 3:00 pm: The executive body of the Republicans arrive at the doors of the party headquarters. Geoffroy Didier (LR): “If we have to dislodge Eric Ciotti, even physically, we will not hesitate to do so”; Ciotti sends an email to all members of the party sharing a petition for an alliance with the right. At the same time, a dissident and illegal political office was organized by his detractors.
  • 3:30 pm: Valérie Pécresse (LR), rival of Eric Ciotti is seen arriving, rolling up her sleeves, together with colleagues Laurent Wauquiez, Gérard Larcher, and François-Xavier Bellamy at the headquarters in order to dislodge Ciotti. They invoke an ad-hoc assembly to depose Ciotti as the party president; Pécresse tells the press she will not tolerate traitors, and that she wants an alliance against all the extremes as well as an alternative to Macron.
  • 4 pm: Press releases information about an extraordinary meeting of the Reconquête executive committee that was held at the party headquarters yesterday at about 4 pm, the time between Marion Marechal’s meeting with Bardella and her announcement after a long silence. The meeting did not last long before going south: “It’s your fault if the alliance wasn’t made, get over it!”, fumes Marion Maréchal in front of Éric Zemmour and Sarah Knafo before sending to the president of Génération Z, Stanislas Rigault: “If you are not elected, you only have yourself and your cronies to blame who told the press to sabotage my campaign”, according to several executives present in the large meeting room, leaving the young Zemmourist speechless. Éric Zemmour’s scathing response: “Well then piss off!”. After 10 minutes, Guillaume Peltier and Nicolas Bay also leave the table, escorted back by security between themass of journalists. “The divorce is a done deal, the future of the party uncertain. Marion Maréchal will have tried everything to unite all the right-wing parties, in vain for the moment” reads the newspaper. Rumour has it that Ciotti’s arrival to the coalition gave Marine Le Pen all the more reason to make Zemmour’s party implode, and that she has indeed negotiated a deal with Marion Marechal without Zemmour knowing about it.
  • 4:20 pm: Ciotti’s petition reaches 10’000 signatures. The site even crashed for a moment due to the number of people accessing at the same time.
  • 5 pm: At the gates of the headquarters, Annie Genevard, general secretary of the Republicans speaks on behalf of several elected officials: “Éric Ciotti is excluded from the Republicans today”
  • 5:15 pm: Eric Ciotti rejects his ousting, releases public statement: “I am and I will remain the president”.
  • 5:30 pm: Annie Genevard proclaims herself the president of the Republicans. She gets souted at by a young Ciotti supporter: “You betray the values of Gaullism, you should be ashamed”.
  • 5:45 pm: Marion Marechal due to make a public announcement at 6:45 pm, next to the National Assembly. Marion would have succeeded in guaranteeing that some of her closest colleagues would get the endorsement of the RN.
  • pm: Genevard opens the headquarters with a clone key. By this time, the youth wing of the Republicans is present, and they voice their disapproval of the ousting. Ciotti goes home without recognising neither the ousting nor the new president.
  • 6:30 pm: Marion Marechal stirs up a scandal. She releases a public statement endorsing the candidates of the National Rally and accusing Eric Zemmour of aiming to present the maximum number of candidates for the election, thereby splitting the vote with the National Rally. She is accusing Zemmour of fomenting division in the national camp. Such statements would directly contradict Zemmour’s own words on live TV the day before; Out of 5 European Parliament members that Zemmour’s Reconquête party would have, she would have the support of 4, including herself, leaving Zemmour with only one: his partner, Sarah Knafo. What is more puzzling: Zemmour’s Party is in the European ECR group led by Italy’s PM, Giorgia Meloni. Marine Le Pen’s party is in the ID group that is trying to win Meloni’s favour over Ursula von der Leyen’s EPP to form a coalition in Brussels. Taking Marion and her MEPs out of the ECR and into the ID by having them join the National Rally would probably rub Meloni the wrong way. However, no one in Marion Marechal’s camp has hinted at joining the National Rally yet. Marine’s strategy here raises some questions.
  • 7:15 pm: Ciotti goes on a live television interview: “The first danger for the Republic today is the Social Democrats (LFI)” and announces that there will be about 80 candidates presenting themselves in the elections with the full support of the National Rally.
  • 8 pm: The twitter account of the Republican Party (the one Ciotti was locked out of) was briefly suspended. Either Ciotti contacted Elon Musk or the mass-reporting from French anons caused it to be suspended briefly.
  • 10 pm: Eric Zemmour goes live on TV. He asserts that he has been betrayed by a family of professional betrayers. He confirms that Marion Marechal and her supporters have been fired from the party.
  • Third night of riots. The Catholic Family Association of France Lyon office was ransacked by Antifa from the Popular Front and covered with the slogan “the Anti-France will prevail”

Current State: The Dust Settles?

That concludes the first 72 hours of political drama in France. It looks like the alliances have already been made despite the unresolved questions: Will Zemmour’s party survive the nuclear blow? Will this weakened coalition be enough to face the Popular Front and Macron? Did Marion Marechal lie about Zemmour or was she telling the truth? At the time of the publishing of this article, Ciotti has won the court case against his party dissidents and remains legally the leader of the Republicans. As for the electorate, it seems young Republicans will support the right coalition. The rest will vote for Macron on the first round, but if Macron fails on the first round, it’s unclear whether those votes will got to the left or the right coalition. Marion Marechal and her followers are still expelled from Reconquete, but she hasn’t joined RN, only endorsed the coalition and encouraged voters to vote for RN candidates. Zemmour has likewise endorsed the right-wing coalition.
There might be one or two updates that the reader might get wind of after publication, but overall, it looks like most of the schism has already taken place.

What a Bloody Mess

The absolute state of French nationalism

It is the reality of party politics that unscrupulous people lead pragmatic alliances, not even necessarily with private monetary gain in mind, but with big egos brushing mercilessly against each other as it is visible in this case. The left on the other hand, was more or less able to unite instantaneously in its crusade against the right, showing us that the problem in the right is not ideology, but a crucial lack thereof. An opportunistic right with no solid principles. Maybe this is why Macron did what he did: because he knew that the right is an incompetent amalgamation of people that can’t spend a moment without going at each other’s throats.

The European right was served victory almost on a silver platter, but it chose to make a mess of it. Marine Le Pen put a cordon sanitaire around the Germans thus launching a chaos within AfD, the party which arguably has done the most significant amount of work trying to push ideas of remigration; while breaking the cordon sanitaire put around her party back in France, only to end up taking a fraction of both adjacent parties into a coalition that will now depend on the electorate to listen to her. Zemmour has kept his promise and endorsed the coalition despite having been stabbed in the back by it, but even then, it would be another coalition of de-radicalisers made for the expediency of the occasion. Our comedy turned into a tragedy in less than half a week.

For those of us who put their efforts into building structures like the organisations of French nationalists on the ground, defending their pubs and their churches, our job is simple: cast your vote into whatever ballot it is necessary if you must to buy time, and then forget about it. The real victories lie in our communities, in the realm of the real. Spread ideology, not clever master plans and pragmatic schemes.

  1. Faf: French acronym F.A.F. “France aux Français” (France to the French) used to describe nationalists ↩︎

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Since you’re writing nonsensical political fan fiction
day 4 the secret underground Society of French Nazis Catholic fundamentalists and French absolute monarchists seize the capital and the French nuclear codes installing the Orleans in house back onto the throne they immediately call for the expulsion of all Muslims from France they simultaneously assassinate the Pope and install Pope Sarah as the new Pope.

The Pope calls for a holy war against the non white wall because it has been corrupted by Islam the 15th crusade is called

the neo jacobite militia in the UK Gaines control the royal family executing them for being filthy Protestants

a group of Ukrainian national socialist along with Russian monarchists in Russian fascist sees Vladimir Putin executing him on live television and proclaiming the new unified we sell Ukrainian empire
they immediately declare war on Turkey

a combination of nonsensical neo Confederates national socialists absolute monarchists fundamentalist Protestants gain control of the United States and declare the 1st empire of Dixie and have All Blacks put back in chains because slavery was great

Ohh I misread the article I thought this was speculation and not fact*** **** the right wing is stupid

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